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Funding the Future

Look Forward

10 January 2024
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Welcome to Look Forward. In this issue, our teams take you inside some of the biggest trends shaping the business world and global economy from now until the end of the decade.

For my entire career, I’ve been working with data —for energy markets, to manage risk and to make strategic investments. The data and analysis in this report point to a future in which leaders face a more challenging and costly operating environment. At a time when the need to finance economic growth, climate resilience, the energy transition and aging populations is as great as ever, decision-makers must also confront higher debt levels, higher interest rates and higher degrees of fragmentation within and among nations.

Despite the uneven state of global affairs, I remain optimistic about the years ahead. I still believe in the value of public-private partnerships and in the power of technology and innovation to execute and finance the transition to a sustainable future. Finding solutions won’t be straightforward, but leaders have the data and insights to inform their thinking and to propel organizations to success.

In closing, I want to thank Look Forward’s researchers, analysts, writers and editors for the fabulous work they do, and I want to thank you, our readers, for your interest in the insights our teams have uncovered about the themes transforming our world.


Douglas L. Peterson
President and CEO
S&P Global



Welcome to Look Forward. In this issue, our teams take you inside some of the biggest trends shaping the business world and global economy from now until the end of the decade.

For my entire career, I’ve been working with data —for energy markets, to manage risk and to make strategic investments. The data and analysis in this report point to a future in which leaders face a more challenging and costly operating environment. At a time when the need to finance economic growth, climate resilience, the energy transition and aging populations is as great as ever, decision-makers must also confront higher debt levels, higher interest rates and higher degrees of fragmentation within and among nations.

Despite the uneven state of global affairs, I remain optimistic about the years ahead. I still believe in the value of public-private partnerships and in the power of technology and innovation to execute and finance the transition to a sustainable future. Finding solutions won’t be straightforward, but leaders have the data and insights to inform their thinking and to propel organizations to success.

In closing, I want to thank Look Forward’s researchers, analysts, writers and editors for the fabulous work they do, and I want to thank you, our readers, for your interest in the insights our teams have uncovered about the themes transforming our world.


Douglas L. Peterson
President and CEO
S&P Global










  • Funding the Future

    As we look ahead to 2030, the world faces unprecedented, accelerated and multifaceted transitions.





    Read the Introduction

  • Global debt 2030: Can the world afford a multifaceted transition? 

    With global leverage reaching new peaks and a higher cost of debt, can governments, corporates and households finance climate, digital and demographic transition?



    Read the Report

  • End of the Washington Consensus

    The world is fragmenting at a time when cooperation is needed to tackle the global issues of climate change, the energy transition, debt and healthcare.

    Interview with Carlos Pascual, Senior Vice President, Geopolitics and International Affairs, S&P Global Commodity Insights



    Read the Report

  • Investment in climate adaptation needs have high returns on growth

    Lower- and lower-middle-income economies risk losing 12% of GDP to hazards such as storms, but investing up to 0.6% of GDP in adaptation will have high returns.




    Read the Report

  • The multidimensional path to net-zero

    The path to net-zero must span global economies, resources and technologies.





    Read the Report

  • The journey to further EV adoption

    The uptake of electric vehicles varies across global economies, but the market is dynamic, and trends can change quickly.





    Read the Report

  • The challenges of aging: Fast and slow

    All countries are exposed to demographic transitions, but some will be impacted much sooner than others. Governments must take timely policy action if they are to adequately address the consequential challenges.





    Read the Report

  • Can generative AI create a productivity boom?

    This technology has profound implications for labor markets, the global economy and equitable development.






    Read the Report

 



Sponsors & Contributors


Martina Cheung
President,
S&P Global Ratings
Executive Sponsor, S&P Global Research Council
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Global Head of Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Atul Arya, Ph.D.
Chief Energy Strategist,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Ali Adim
Senior Research Analyst,
Supply Chain & Technology,
S&P Global Mobility

Marion Amiot
Head of Climate Economics,
S&P Global Ratings
Tim Armstrong
SVP and Partner,
Planning Solutions,
Automotive Insights,
S&P Global Mobility
Terry Chan, CFA
Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings

Miriam Fernandez
Associate Director,
S&P Global Ratings

Paul Gruenwald
Global Chief Economist,
S&P Global Ratings
Nathan Hunt
Vice President of Content, Social Media and Digital Marketing,
S&P Global
Christine Ip
Associate,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings
Alexander Johnston
Research Analyst,
451 Research,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Sudeep Kesh
Chief Innovation Officer,
Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Shankar Krishnamurthy
Head of EssentialTech COE
and Innovation,
S&P Global
Gregg Lemos-Stein
Chief Analytical Officer,
Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Jeff Meyer
Director,
Energy and Mobility,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Marko Mrsnik
Managing Director,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Joydeep Mukherji
Sector Lead,
Sovereign Ratings, Americas,
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Munday, Ph.D.
Global Climate Adaptation and Resilience Specialist,
S&P Global Ratings
Carlos Pascual
Senior Vice President,
Geopolitics and International Affairs,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Nick Patience
Founder and Managing Analyst,
451 Research,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Jose Perez-Gorozpe
Head of Credit Research,
Emerging Markets,
S&P Global Ratings
Roberto Sifon-Arevalo
Chief Analytical Officer,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Eunice Tan
Head of Credit Research,
Asia-Pacific,
S&P Global Ratings
David Tesher
Head of Credit Research,
North America,
S&P Global Ratings
Samuel Tilleray
Associate Director,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Emmanuel Volland
Global Sector Lead,
Financial Institutions,
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Watters
Head of Credit Research,
EMEA,
S&P Global Ratings
Kenneth Wattret
Vice President,
Global Economics,
S&P Global Market Intelligence

Ruth Yang
Global Head of Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Ratings
Yucheng Zheng
Director,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings

Sponsors & Contributors


Martina Cheung
President,
S&P Global Ratings
Executive Sponsor, S&P Global Research Council
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Global Head of Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Atul Arya, Ph.D.
Chief Energy Strategist,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Ali Adim
Senior Research Analyst,
Supply Chain & Technology,
S&P Global Mobility

Marion Amiot
Head of Climate Economics,
S&P Global Ratings
Tim Armstrong
SVP and Partner,
Planning Solutions,
Automotive Insights,
S&P Global Mobility
Terry Chan, CFA
Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings

Miriam Fernandez
Associate Director,
S&P Global Ratings

Paul Gruenwald
Global Chief Economist,
S&P Global Ratings
Nathan Hunt
Vice President of Content, Social Media and Digital Marketing,
S&P Global
Christine Ip
Associate,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings
Alexander Johnston
Research Analyst,
451 Research,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Sudeep Kesh
Chief Innovation Officer,
Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Shankar Krishnamurthy
Head of EssentialTech COE
and Innovation,
S&P Global
Gregg Lemos-Stein
Chief Analytical Officer,
Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Jeff Meyer
Director,
Energy and Mobility,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Marko Mrsnik
Managing Director,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Joydeep Mukherji
Sector Lead,
Sovereign Ratings, Americas,
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Munday, Ph.D.
Global Climate Adaptation and Resilience Specialist,
S&P Global Ratings
Carlos Pascual
Senior Vice President,
Geopolitics and International Affairs,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Nick Patience
Founder and Managing Analyst,
451 Research,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Jose Perez-Gorozpe
Head of Credit Research,
Emerging Markets,
S&P Global Ratings
Roberto Sifon-Arevalo
Chief Analytical Officer,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Eunice Tan
Head of Credit Research,
Asia-Pacific,
S&P Global Ratings
David Tesher
Head of Credit Research,
North America,
S&P Global Ratings
Samuel Tilleray
Associate Director,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Emmanuel Volland
Global Sector Lead,
Financial Institutions,
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Watters
Head of Credit Research,
EMEA,
S&P Global Ratings
Kenneth Wattret
Vice President,
Global Economics,
S&P Global Market Intelligence

Ruth Yang
Global Head of Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Ratings
Yucheng Zheng
Director,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings

Sponsors & Contributors


Martina Cheung
President,
S&P Global Ratings
Executive Sponsor, S&P Global Research Council
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Global Head of Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Atul Arya, Ph.D.
Chief Energy Strategist,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Ali Adim
Senior Research Analyst,
Supply Chain & Technology,
S&P Global Mobility

Marion Amiot
Head of Climate Economics,
S&P Global Ratings
Tim Armstrong
SVP and Partner,
Planning Solutions,
Automotive Insights,
S&P Global Mobility
Terry Chan, CFA
Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings

Miriam Fernandez
Associate Director,
S&P Global Ratings

Paul Gruenwald
Global Chief Economist,
S&P Global Ratings
Nathan Hunt
Vice President of Content, Social Media and Digital Marketing,
S&P Global
Christine Ip
Associate,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings
Alexander Johnston
Research Analyst,
451 Research,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Sudeep Kesh
Chief Innovation Officer,
Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Shankar Krishnamurthy
Head of EssentialTech COE
and Innovation,
S&P Global
Gregg Lemos-Stein
Chief Analytical Officer,
Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Jeff Meyer
Director,
Energy and Mobility,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Marko Mrsnik
Managing Director,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Joydeep Mukherji
Sector Lead,
Sovereign Ratings, Americas,
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Munday, Ph.D.
Global Climate Adaptation and Resilience Specialist,
S&P Global Ratings
Carlos Pascual
Senior Vice President,
Geopolitics and International Affairs,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Nick Patience
Founder and Managing Analyst,
451 Research,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Jose Perez-Gorozpe
Head of Credit Research,
Emerging Markets,
S&P Global Ratings
Roberto Sifon-Arevalo
Chief Analytical Officer,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Eunice Tan
Head of Credit Research,
Asia-Pacific,
S&P Global Ratings
David Tesher
Head of Credit Research,
North America,
S&P Global Ratings
Samuel Tilleray
Associate Director,
Sovereign Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Emmanuel Volland
Global Sector Lead,
Financial Institutions,
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Watters
Head of Credit Research,
EMEA,
S&P Global Ratings
Kenneth Wattret
Vice President,
Global Economics,
S&P Global Market Intelligence

Ruth Yang
Global Head of Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Ratings
Yucheng Zheng
Director,
Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings



Lead Editors
Ellen White, Editor
Claire Wilson, Senior Editorial Manager

Project Manager
Alexandra Krief, Director, Business Manager

Production Manager
Brianne Paschen, Senior Manager of Visual Design

Copy Editors
Mary Minton, Editor
Matt Schick, Senior Editor

Head of Editorial, Design & Publishing Team
Ken Fredman

Content Strategy
Nathan Hunt, Vice President of Content and Digital Marketing

Communications
Christopher Krantz, Head of of Reputation and Corporate Communications

Website Development
Kurt Burger, Marketing Specialist

Social Outreach
Camille McManus, Marketing Specialist

Designer
Carla Donaghey, Senior Designer
Lead Editors
Ellen White, Editor
Claire Wilson, Senior Editorial Manager

Project Manager
Alexandra Krief, Director, Business Manager

Production Manager
Brianne Paschen, Senior Manager of Visual Design
Copy Editors
Mary Minton, Editor
Matt Schick, Senior Editor

Head of Editorial, Design & Publishing Team
Ken Fredman

Content Strategy
Nathan Hunt, Vice President of Content and Digital Marketing

Communications
Christopher Krantz, Head of of Reputation and Corporate Communications

Website Development
Kurt Burger, Marketing Specialist

Social Outreach
Camille McManus, Marketing Specialist

Designer
Carla Donaghey, Senior Designer
Lead Editors
Ellen White, Editor
Claire Wilson, Senior Editorial Manager

Project Manager
Alexandra Krief, Director, Business Manager

Production Manager
Brianne Paschen, Senior Manager of Visual Design

Copy Editors
Mary Minton, Editor
Matt Schick, Senior Editor

Head of Editorial, Design & Publishing Team
Ken Fredman

Content Strategy
Nathan Hunt, Vice President of Content and Digital Marketing

Communications
Christopher Krantz, Head of of Reputation and Corporate Communications

Website Development
Kurt Burger, Marketing Specialist

Social Outreach
Camille McManus, Marketing Specialist

Designer
Carla Donaghey, Senior Designer